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11/3/19

Bernie still leads the class war coalition

There's been enough turbulence in the polls in recent months that I've hesitated to make any strong claims about demographics. Nevertheless, some persistent trends continue to stand out:
1. Bernie's voters are still disproportionately poor: a larger fraction of his coalition is made up of voters with less than $50,000 annual household income than we find in any other coalition. And at the same time, Bernie has - by far - the smallest coalition share of voters making six figures.

2. Elizabeth Warren's coalition is still disproportionately well off. Her coalition has a smaller share of poor voters than any other candidate, by far - even though its wealthy faction is nearly as large, proportionally, as Joe Biden's.

These trends are easy to miss because of the way that YouGov reports them - since it's just interested in the horserace, it shows what percentage of each income group a candidate has captured, rather than what percentage of each candidate's coalition comes from a given income group. But if we are interested in what kind of movement these candidates are leading rather than simply how well they are doing overall, we have to look at these numbers with a sense of proportion.