All of this writing and data analysis is a lot of work! So after more than five years of posting, I've finally launched a Patreon to help pay the bills.


You have a choice

You can elect Bernie Sanders, or you can elect Donald Trump.

For nearly a year, our media and political class was in complete denial about Trump. Don't be fooled by the posture of weary inevitability they strike today - just a few months ago, most of them were still publishing all kinds of armchair essays and half-baked demographic analysis insisting that he was going to lose. Because their jobs depend on maintaining a facade of credibility and expertise, these people will give you at best a token mea culpa, and then they will give you absolute surety and certitude in their general election predictions as if nothing ever happened.

A lot of the people who didn't see Trump coming - and didn't see Sanders coming, for that matter - are now going to insist that Clinton is a safe bet and that Sanders would be likely to lose.

If you aren't actually that worried about Trump, go ahead and listen to them again. Listen to their wishful conjecture, their telling anecdotes, their poll unskewing, and their gut intuitions; we can talk ourselves into anything, if we try hard enough. Or just look at what the polls have been saying for months and months on end:

Maybe there's a reason for this.

The actual facts on the ground, gathered in the most rigorous and objective way that we have, are telling us that Bernie Sanders would win this election. And they're telling us that Hillary Clinton's chances of beating Trump are half that - and shrinking. On a bad day, she loses. And she will certainly have more bad days ahead.