Monday, July 31, 2017

Democrats may be losing, but centrists aren't

The Hill reports on a push in the Democratic leadership to offer alternatives to Trumpcare - and single payer:
Pelosi and other top Democrats have hailed a series of ACA reforms recently proposed by a small group of centrist New Democrats and conservative-leaning Blue Dogs...Adding to the pressure, almost 90 Democrats endorsed four specific reforms — based on the proposals from the New Democrats and Blue Dogs — designed to prop up ObamaCare’s struggling individual markets.
As some readers have already pointed out, abandoning single payer for a significantly less popular raft of inadequate technocratic tweaks is a great way to lose elections! And once you recognize this, it's easy to conclude - like Jeet Heer did recently - that Democrats are chronically suicidal politicians with a compulsion to lose.

If you measure victory by election and legislative wins marked with the letter D, this is an understandable take. Still, as fun as it is to point out that the clowns in Congress are a bunch of clowns, this is not actually a plausible account of ordinary human goal-driven behavior. People do not ordinarily try to fail; even losers usually want to win. Democrats see the same polls that we do; they know perfectly well that single payer has plurality support among Americans, and majority support among Democrats. Surely they aren't just reflexively running with the least popular option they can find, regardless of what it is, in order to lose - something else must be at work, right?

Here's an alternative theory: Democrats want to win. But for many Democrats, winning means stopping leftist policy outcomes - and sometimes, the best way to do that is to lose elections and lose fights over legislation. If you are a centrist Democrat and your priority is stopping single payer, then of course you are going to offer alternatives to single payer, even if that means risking a Republican victory. You may even be willing to do things like risk the election of Donald Trump for the sake of denying a win to Bernie Sanders - even as critics warn you just how dangerous this is.

That's why the same people who gave us Hillary Clinton are now actively lobbying for anything-but-single-payer. And as in 2016, this has to be understood as a decision to risk losing to Republicans for the sake of derailing the left. That's the defining calculation that leftists miss when they regard centrists as benevolent but incompetent allies; it's an easy calculation to miss, because only the most cynical centrists realize that they're making it. But if you don't see an effective preference for Republicans over leftists in the operation of centrist politics, there's a lot about their behavior you won't be able to explain.